Beyond the Numbers: Measuring the Changes That Matter
"The power to inform what is working and what is not working that MERL holds is so close to my heart and makes me so passionate about what I do."
Sarah Nassanga, AgFinance Monitoring, Evaluation, Research & Learning Manager
There is one simple question that guides Opportunity International AgFinance's Monitoring, Evaluation, Research & Learning (MERL) strategy: What changed in people's lives?
As AgFinance's MERL Manager, Sarah Nassanga leads the strategy that helps the program answer that question. Working across AgFinance's portfolio, she helps teams understand not only what a project delivered, but whether those efforts contributed to meaningful, lasting change for the more than 1.2 million smallholder farmers that Opportunity International's AgFinance serves across sub-Saharan Africa.
Measuring What Matters
Every development program collects data, but not all data tells the same story.
"We work hand in hand with different teams to first define what success means," Sarah explains. "Not only for a specific project, but how that project contributes to the broader Agriculture Finance Program."
That distinction shapes how AgFinance approaches MERL from the start.
“Are we measuring what we did or what actually changed in real life?”
AgFinance does not approach monitoring and evaluation as merely a reporting requirement; we embed research and learning alongside these functions to create a continuous cycle of evidence, reflection, and adaptation. This runs through every level of our work, from institutional strategy down to individual project design.
Every project begins not in isolation, but as an articulation of AgFinance's Theory of Change, our organization-wide framework for how our interventions are expected to drive lasting change for smallholder farmers. Each project's results chain is designed to align with and contribute to this broader strategic logic:
· the activities to be implemented,
· the outputs those activities should produce,
· the outcomes that demonstrate meaningful change, and
· The impact showing the long-term contribution to AgFinance's broader Theory of Change.
Defining outcomes is only part of the process. Equally important is ensuring those outcomes reflect what impactful change looks like to the farmers themselves.
Instead of assuming what success should look like, AgFinance takes a human-centered design approach to understand how farmers themselves describe meaningful progress.
"The level of client data and how we back these strategies up helps us speak more broadly into the challenges that clients are facing," Sarah says. "All of our MERL work is targeted to highlight challenges that the clients themselves have highlighted."
Rather than relying on a single survey or data point, AgFinance combines a mixed-methods research approach to understand both the scale and the lived experience of change.
These methods include:
· Annual outcome surveys
· Focus group discussions
· Outcome harvesting
· Client journey mapping
· Quick learning studies
· Quantitative and qualitative analyses
Each method answers a different question, and together they provide a broader picture of how farmers experience AgFinance's support. That evidence is then used to strengthen programming, helping teams understand what is working, where challenges remain, and how interventions can better support farmers.
Evidence That Drives Better Decisions
As Sarah says, "The beauty of this role is that it's not just monitoring and evaluation. It also embeds research and learning. Those last two are often left out, but they're what help us use data to make decisions and create sustainable impact."
Good measurement should inform programming. "We're trying to understand whether we're reaching the right people, whether our interventions are working, and most importantly, whether we're supporting farmers to grow more and earn more in the way we intended," Sarah says. That means looking beyond outputs alone.
While outputs tell us what was delivered, research and learning help us understand the outcomes those activities contributed to, and whether these outcomes resulted in meaningful change for farmers: why they happened, and how we can use those insights to improve future programming. This is what transforms monitoring from a reporting function into a strategic tool for decision-making.
For example, rather than reporting only how many farmers attended a training session, the program also asks:
· How many farmers adopted the practices they learned?
· Which practices were easiest or hardest to implement?
· How much did agricultural yields change after implementation?
· How (and by how much) did household income change?
· What barriers still remain?
Here are a few examples of how AgFinance services are designed to contribute to lasting outcomes in farmers' lives.
"What Changed in People’s Lives?”
As a program, AgFinance exists to support smallholder farmers to grow more, earn more, and advance rural prosperity.
MERL helps answer whether that mission is becoming reality. (Spoiler: It is.)
In 2025 alone, the results spoke for themselves:
· 74% of AgFinance clients increased agricultural income
· 72% increased agricultural yields
· 6% average income increase per farmer over the last year
· 3.3 million jobs created or sustained
· 79% adopted improved agricultural practices after training
· 92% reported an increased ability to manage finances
· 87% reported an improved quality of life
· 97% of women clients reported greater involvement in major household decisions
These numbers are much more than just data. Each one represents a family, a farmer, a community.
Success is not measured by the number of reports produced or activities completed. It is measured by whether farmers are better able to grow more food, earn more income, strengthen their resilience, and create new opportunities for their families.
"We work with 1.2 million farmers," Sarah reflects. "But how do our programs support this one person in this one household?"